![]() ![]() While it was 58 years ago, George Winterling remembers Dora as if it was yesterday. He used to have to drive to the airport, where the National Weather Service had a bureau, to pick up the latest weather information for his evening forecasts. He used markers to draw his forecasts for TV viewers and white paint to depict clouds. Winterling had at his resources a rain gauge, the wind gauge he had installed on the roof at the station, and a barometer to measure atmospheric pressure. There was no radar, satellite was not available at that time, there was no heat index, no internet, and no real-time information to provide Winterling with the latest intelligence about what a weather system was doing and where it was going. To grasp the magnitude of what he would do in the next two weeks requires a better understanding of how TV meteorologists built their forecasts in the early 1960s. ![]() 28, 1964, when a tropical wave developed off the coast of Africa.Īt the time, WJXT meteorologist, George Winterling, was settling into his second year as the station’s weather expert. Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.JACKSONVILLE, Fla. Tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. The distribution of hurricaneĪnd tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen inĬonsidering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, theĬhances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),ĥ0 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in ![]() The most likely track area of the center. The areaĮxperiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at leastħ4 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds ofģ9-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing TheirĮffects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. The cone is then formedīy smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. Previous five years official forecast errors. Where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the Toįorm the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along theįorecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, Indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropicalĬyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. Stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. The track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the Uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid whiteĪnd stippled white areas in the graphic. NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:ĭ: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH Then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. ![]() Tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the centerĪt the times indicated. The orange circle indicates the current position of theĬenter of the tropical cyclone. Tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), How to use the cone graphic (video): About this product: * If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic ![]()
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